Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (20101)	4/23/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Chuz, you're invested in DELL, don't talk to me about fooling myself. Pull out a chart of the XAU. A rise in gold is usually an advance indication of coming inflation. The XAU bottomed a couple months ago, and crossed the 200 dma yesterday. Int. rates usually follow gold up. We've gone sideways for 4 months on the long bond, either we break and go dramatically lower or we break and go alot higher. I'm guessing we'll be back above 7% by the end of the yr. Then look at palladium, then silver. The Johanessburg gold index broke a 3 yr dwntrend yesterday. Macro events are unfolding. The $ is beginning to weaken. Bond has drifted higher whether you blow it off or not. Japs are talkin about dumping their bond holdings to raise cash. We get some economic numbers next week, we'll see how the mkt reacts. Have you looked at a chart of mutual fund cash levels vs the S&P?? Cash levels are at there lowest levels in 20 yrs!!!!!!! Bull/bear ratio is so slanted to the bulls it is permanently stained w/ cow manure. The bears I know are all still fully invested !! they're just nervous? These things when taken in the aggregate all paint a picture. For the last 3 months we've heard this can't be a top because there is no rampant speculation and interest rates are low. Well both of those things are changing right before your eyes. The party is topping. It won't end till later, but we are putting in a top. What can I say, I've got money on it. :) Unfortunately, as usual, most don't realize what is happening until it is too late. Your post is indicative of the complacency in the mkt by most participants. Good Luck. I personally think a little caution is wise at this point cause everything I see around me says SELL. Finally: <<So I simply don't see the economic basis for a meltdown. >>> Let's be honest, I could easily be off my rocker and wrong, but if it were that easy and you and I and this whole thread saw it coming, it would never happen! -Lucretius

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