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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 273.32-0.3%12:27 PM EST

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To: devil ray who wrote (12080)4/23/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: soup  Read Replies (1) of 213176
 
>$50 by july? You are on some good drugs! If you think it can get anywhere near that why don't you buy my july30's that I am thinking of dumping after a small loss. They are not even worth 2. With premiums on options extremely low I don't think anybody else shares you're thoughts on $50. The market seems due for a correction and in my opinion aapl will struggle to stay in the mid 20's.<

devil ray;

My advice is to sell your calls.

1) Your scenario is as plausible as any other. If that's your gut feeling you should go with it. Whenever I played options, they were always pretty minimal relative to my portfolio; bought for a specific reason and liquidated immediately if my reasoning proved wrong or if the goal was accomplished. But they were always done within a long term bullish context.

2) Without being disparaging, I agree with Phil about your use of short-term options. It sounds like you need to build a foundation. Find a set of investments/allocation models (stocks, mutual funds) you can get behind long-term and hang on. If it/they drop, you know enough (more than the analysts covering) about it to average down.

IMO, individual investors *can't* win a short term gain with house rules as they are.

OTOH, with a long term strategy, the odds are definitely on your side.

Best quote I know refers to investing as the "patient science".

soup

PS> e-mail me if you'd like some resources.

Meantime, I freely recommend the following site:

mjwhitman.com

Marty Whitman, who runs the Third Avenue Funds is renowned "vulture investor" and was voted Morningstar's Manager of the Year in 1990. He's in his seventies and he lectures at Yale. His acerbic shareholder reports are the best in the business.
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