Ah, the smell of fear and overconfidence in the morning!
The top of SEEKs gap is 28 1/8, the bottom, about 26. It has been touched; given the current climate, it may fill. That's the fear side. The overconfidence may now shift to the shorts, eager to get in on the "tanking" Internet sector, which is indeed deeply in the red. In fact, the high drama of third-tier tickers like MARG, KTEL, SEVL, the refrigeration company whose ticker escapes me--along with a heap of cohorts--just as the leaders are retrenching is interesting. Yes, it was, is, a blowoff top, but largely the retracing in now complete. My guess is the market will go about its end-of-month slip backward for a few days, then gather momentum for the beginning of May in the last couple of days of April. For now the game has shifted to the large caps, which are hinted at improving numbers in the second half. Even so, looking deeper into the tea leaves to sift the spin from substance in MSFT's earnings, Gates & Co. are faltering this morning. A general market malaise, yes, but the big techs aren't the sure thing of days gone by. DELL is on the cover of Fortune, and it is a fabulous company and stock, but it is coming under pricing pressure. The chip and disk drive stocks still have the earnings blues. But--pardon my inusffereable harping on a long perspective--the Internet is not only inching forward in worldwide growth and acceptance; its companies are reporting increasing revenues and beating estimates. Loses, yes; future, speculative. My sense, however, is that amid this downturn, investors are aware that CheckPoint beat estimates, Secure Computing beat estimates, Mindspring beat estimates, even poor Excite. All this will be duly noted by, pardon my old-timey phrase, the money trusts, if not the all important money flow! Or so it seems to me, with my dash of TA and my pinch of FA.
Isn't prediction fun! Sorry not to provide information, though, so I have an idea. Just pass over my next 200 posts, then you can take them all together. There's nothing timely in them anyway.
Have fun and keep those fingers crossed, SEEKers.
J |
