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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 275.27

+0.3%

9:52 AM EST

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To: Phillip C. Lee who wrote (12082)	4/23/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: rhet0ric	Read Replies (1) of 213176

Some more rhet0rical amateur T.A. I'm trying to figure out what AAPL should be trading at following the earnings announcement, using trading ranges from the recent past. Range Diff Month Climate $21-$24 $3 9/97 Post Microsoft announcement $16-$20 $4 10-11/97 After 10/97 -ve earnings $13-$16 $3 12/97 Tax loss selling $17-$20 $3 1/98 After 1/98 +ve earnings $20-$28 $8 2-3/98 Run-up before 4/98 earnings $27-$30 $3 4/98 After 4/98 +ve earnings $30-$38 $8 5-6/98 Run-up before 7/98 earnings One thing I find odd is that the trading range in October and January were the same, despite -ve earnings in Oct and +ve in Jan. It took a long time for the price to reflect the new circumstances. It seems to me that the big run-up in February and March was based on two things, the earnings announcement in January, plus news from the field that sales were going well and would likely lead to a positive announcement in April. If sales continue to go well, and there is other positive news over the next month, it seems like a new range for 5-6/98 of something like $30-$38 would be reasonable. amateurishly, rhet0ric

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