LT,
I agree with your doom and gloom forecast as it always occurs when markets get this high. There are many signs that tells us that we're in the kind of market that precedes a dramatic bear market.
However, timing the top is very difficult. We may be at the top now or we may have another year of outstanding gains to go. The market is due for a 700 point correction, and then it will likely start another big move upward. This should continue until inflation appears and interest rates need to be raised. I don't see it now, but it could begin at any time.
As for this sector, moves downward in the market will focus attention on commodity prices. If crude is firm or rising, we should do fine. I would only be worried in the near-term if we were oversold and crude started dropping at the time the market began to correct. In this scenario, we could plummet very quickly and I would probably go to cash, otherwise a correction doesn't concern me.
This sector is getting stronger all the time and I agree that it isn't wise to try to time the dips anymore unless these circumstances combine to make a substantial drop likely.
007
PS The Teddy View:
If crude goes down, we're doomed.
If crude remains stable, e & p budgets based on expectations of higher crude prices will be slashed, we're doomed.
If crude goes up, corporate earnings drop, inflation rises, interest rates rise, crude demand falls, the market crashes, we're doomed. |
