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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy?
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To: Linda Kaplan who wrote (3518)4/23/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: Hank  Read Replies (2) of 7041
 
"Re ZONA: the May issue of the J. of Urology has a supplement that lists the abstracts of papers to be presented at the AUA national meeting in San Diego May 30-June 4. There is one paper on Vasomax. I doubt the publication of the supplement last week caused a rise in the stock. By the end of May the press may have saturated the market with Viagra stories and there may be place for some Vasomax coverage (hype) if ZONA manages it well.

An abstract of the abstract:

#919 Efficacy and Safety of Oral Phentolamine (Vasomax) for the Treatment of Minimal Erectile Dysfunction. Irwin Goldstein, Vasomax Study Group. Placebo-controlled, parallel group, double-blind randomized study:

Placebo 16%
40mg 37%
80mg 45%

Placebo-controlled crossover
Placebo 21%
40mg 34%

"...safe and effective oral medication for the treatment of mild erectile dysfunction." :"

The above is a post from Rogers Shorts thread. If you subtract out the placebo (background) effect, you get a true efficacy range of 11%-29% for Vasomax. Now, if you believe that clinical numbers will drop in the true population, as some have claimed on this thread, then you can expect the true efficacy to be even less. Also note that they are claiming it to be effective against *mild* and or *minimal* ED only.
I sure wouldn't want to stay long in this stock based on these numbers. It also looks as if Joe P. was stretching the truth a bit in todays IBD article. The maximum expected efficacy minus placebo is 29%, not 30%, with an averge of 20%. Nothing like rounding up I always say.
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