Olu, the thought that you might be flaming never crossed my mind until I read your last line, which I appreciate for its consideration. As for the content of your message, which raises valid issues, let me ask, What is normal? For example, what is normal for a well-established company in a mature industry is not normal for a growth stock in an emerging sector. What is normal for a small company with a tiny float is not normal for a big company with a huge one--except when earnings disappoint, that is. What is normal for a value investor is not normal for a growth investor; what is normal for a growth investor is not normal for a momentum investor. Obviously we need to consider the context. That we disagree about that context and the meaning of normality makes for speculation. And while I find your use of caps dramatic, I hardly find them any more persuasive than your figure of 95%, which, and I don't intend this disparagingly, you've clearly pulled out of a hat. The risk/reward ratio may not be to your liking as a long, but I doubt you will find people to generally think it is 19 to 1. On the other hand, if you seriously believe in your numbers, perhaps we might make a side bet on those odds. Finally, as for SEEK's being a $20 stock, well, the market will decide. Just--and please don't think me patronizing for saying this--watch out for overconfidence. Psychologists tell us we all typically overrate the certainty of our predictions, which in the market is dangerous, long or short. At any rate, thanks again for your reply, and good luck with your trading.
J |
