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Technology Stocks : AMD:News, Press Releases and Information Only!
AMD 217.53+1.5%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: Francis Chow who wrote (5678)4/23/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Bill Jackson  Read Replies (2) of 6843
 
Francis, I think some are going to collapse, like Gateway, and some are going to be humbled but survive, like CPQ. AMD might just do better than most and Intel worst. MSFT will carry on as the make the same as before.
The expected growth of 15% in boxes and only 9% in money over the summer means margin shrink. In addition there is enough supply in the channel to provide for an increase in box sales of 30-40% as competing makers have ramped up. This over supply is running headlong into the summer slump. Already you can buy mini tower case and power supply for under $20 US(dealer level)

Do you remember the old Roman trick when they built the roads to their fortified towns? The road went along the top of a causeway and when it hit the gate it was, say 20 feet wide, and 200 feet away it was around 30-35 feet wide, and the perspective was such that you thought the road was longer and the same width at the end. The enemy charges and as they get closer they get compressed from side to side, or they fall off the causeway into the monsters in the moat<GG>
Sort of an old time lossy byte funnel.

So now 25% excess supply is charging into this funnel, and you think they will all make it.
Some fields like I/P telephony will do OK, certain companies. but PCs will be a blood bath.

Bill
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