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Technology Stocks : American Power Conversion

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To: Mike Farrar who wrote (2006)	4/23/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Alan Edgett	Read Replies (2) of 2574

FRom a Yahoo board...any thoughts? Message Boards Help - Edit Public Profile - Personalize - Sign Out Top:Business and Finance:Stocks:Technology:Electronic Instr and Controls:APCC (American Power Conversion Corp) <- Previous Message 174 of 174 Reply Seasonality in APCC jocurtis (39/M/Toledo, OH) Apr 23 1998 8:10PM EDT When I first looked at the earnings I must admit I had hoped for better but it almost always pays to take a deeper look. In general, I like to see sequential quarter growth in both earnings and sales. I pretty much do not trust analysts and their estimates. Since APCC did not report sequential growth, it helps to understand why... It looks like APCC routinely is seasonly low in their first Q. I am a little puzzled by this since in a network installation business I am associated with, we use exclusively APC and purchase it any time of the year. I don't really sense a seasonal factor other than when warm weather hits everyone seems to want to talk about new projects with me. Anyway, here are the numbers.. From Dec 96 to Mar 97 sales declined from 210 to 172, 18% From Dec 96 to Mar 97 EPS declined from 0.32 to 0.22, 31% Now we have: From Dec 97 to Mar 98 sales declined from 252 to 219, 13% From Dec 97 to Mar 98 EPS declined from 0.39 to 0.28, 28% So this documents the seasonality. A lower March report is to be expected. But the year-to-year comparisons look great across the board. On a seasonly adjusted basis the numbers look good to me since the seasonal decline was not as great as it was last year indicating stronger underlying growth. But I have no idea if the market will think so. The market may have been hoping for more and APCC is just as vulnerable to a general sell-off as any other company. If the market views the numbers as I do, the stock should go up. But the market doesn't always see things the way I do. <g> Can anyone shed more light on why APCC's first Q is seasonly low? Jeff

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