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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion
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To: Ed Zhao who wrote (1555)11/5/1996 1:18:00 PM
From: Mondoman   of 13949
 
In answer to your questions:

1) I don't own a fleet of Ferraris if that's what you're implying.
However, I have been investing for over 15 years. Most of that
time I was long, and most of my net worth was generated by only 3 stocks (Microsoft, Dell, Chase Manhattan).
2) No - even though I'm sure there's a lot of BS passed back and
forth in these columns, every trade I documented is quite real.
3) Maybe.
4) Never. I've had my share of mistakes. One of the things I learned
is if you have done your homework and the story stays on track, the stock will eventually reflect its true value (or lack thereof). The key to successful investing is to never permit yourself to get religious or emotional about a concept or company. One of the reasons I believe the Y2K stocks are great shorting opportunities is that investors (large and small alike) have already determined the conclusion of a story built upon faulty premises.

I couldn't really give you an opinion one way or another on technical evidence. I personally don't buy into "technical analysis", which I consider about as valuable as reading astrological charts. In the case of the Y2K stocks, I am shorting based upon my determination that these companies a) have spotty track records, b) weak balance sheets, c) price levels that assume earnings and revenue growth which I find highly improbable (if not outright impossible) to achieve.

You make a good point that the hype may not be over. But hype doesn't concern me - fundamentals do. If the stocks get bid up on hype, and I'm still convinced that the companies are overvalued, I would use the runup as an opportunity to dollar-cost-average much the same way I would buy a great value on the dips.
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