Where is everybody? Wake up! CRPB is now selling at a discount.
Now that CRPB is in the $17 range, it is likely that this low price range won't last for long. Here's my rationale:
1. At today's close, CRPB is:
a) 1.3% BELOW the level it was the day after (10/28/97) the Hong Kong crisis hit in October! Unlike now, there was so much uncertainty and fear then. Since then, CRPB turned in an upside earnings report for that quarter (1997 Q4) and it did the same for this quarter. Conclusion: Even considering the possibility of a soft Q2 (which management "views as a temporary condition"), CRPB should be trading above post-Hong-Kong Crisis levels.
b) 19% off it's mid quarter trading levels of $22. High volume accompanied the runup to $22 on optimism going forward. Today's downward move may have been an over-reaction
c) 9.5% below the close before earnings.
2. Today's selloff is probably due to two TRANSIENT factors:
a) Traders who were playing the Q1 earnings release unloaded their shares today after they didn't get enough upside movement from the earnings.
b) Other long term investors may have liked the upside earnings surprise ($0.28 vs. $0.25 First Call), but didn't like the possibility of a slower Q2.
3. We now have only about two months left in the second quarter. Those who traded out today did so even though Q3 & Q4 will ramp up and 1999 looks "huge". Once the Q2 news has flushed out the weak hands in CRPB, long-range buyers will recognize that Q2 is a temporary condition. In fact, the buyers today were undoubtedly looking ahead beyond May & June and they realized that CRPB may not be changing hands in the $17-$18 range for long.
4. For comparison, look at Electroglas (EGLS). This semiconductor equipment test company announced a $0.02/share LOSS today and the stock trades at $16-$17! CRPB EARNS $0.28/share and it also traded in the $17 range today! Go figure...
5. Cerprobe's acquisition of IBM's COBRA PROBE technology from Upsys will prove to be an excellent strategic move, generating substantial revenues, beginning in Q4 into 1999.
I listened to the earnings conference call and will document in a subsequent post. There's some good info there. |
