$0.31 beats the $0.27 estimates I had seen and the next few quarters need only about $.06 each over last year to make the $1.52 prediction I've seen. I do wonder if the 03/97 number was abnormally low for some reason?
I had AVID (and Silicon Graphics) too back in 94 to end of 95. I'd have to check my records but I think I got out of AVID with a modest profit, though I wish someone had told me to sell when you did.
Afterwards I concluded that, although they had the "standard" product, they had become complacent and were overspending on glitz, brochures and fancy offices while competition was closing the technical gap.
When I bought back in last August at $23.75, I reasoned that AVID was still the name brand, that the total market would be expanding for several years to fill all the new TV channels as well as movies, and that there was substantial room for cost cutting at AVID.
Also, I didn't know enough to tell which of their competitors might be successful. I reasoned that in the overall cost of a feature film, the costs difference between editing on an AVID vs. some lower cost system seemed likely to be lost in the noise and so many editors were trained on or familiar with AVID equipment. This doesn't apply for independent or corporate video producers though and you people will ultimately be the larger market.
With the tremendous increases in hardware performance the playing field is obviously more level, but the overall market will be much larger too - even local cable channels, more corporate and training videos, and I'm told direct to broadcast for news reporting.
Can you suggest who may come up with the next Video Toaster - sounds like it might be Pinnacle? Also sounds like these systems might be down to the cost levels where wedding videos, etc. could be edited on NLE systems and more systems could be sold to educational institutions (both for producing learning materials and for student training in multimedia production).
I will do some digging about and will consider whether it is perhaps time to take some profits.
In any event, I will certainly watch carefully over the next few months.
I'm not in the industry, so I find it especially useful to hear from a user - as opposed to one who is purely an investor. Thanks for your insights. I glanced over your earlier post and will ruminate over its contents for a while.
Mike |
