INDEX UPDATE
--------------------------
The key to this pullback is the action in the NAZ today. It was down huge and almost retraced the last 2 strong up days in the NAZ. Using the 5:1 ration the NAZ dropped 180 DOW POINTS.
I am still not seeing a huge pullback just a normal technical one for the very short-term of 5 days.
My cycle analysis is calling for 3-4 total down days, which does not mean that all of those days have to be negative. If there is an up day at the close, as long as the up day is lower than the previous days high this pullback is still intact.
Please also keep in mind the possibility of only a sector rotation correction, but feel the weakness is apparent in the overall market.
I feel that this correction can last till next TUES/maximum WED. WED/THUR/FRI should be the start of the rebound into the 1st week of MAY, then down again.
If there is a rally tomorrow, the pullback will still be intact as long as the rally does not take us back to the peak. Its very unlikely that the NAZ could rebound 36 points.
Rally's should be sold into. With the interest rates approaching 6%, I am looking at the banks, and of course the NAZ to increase my PUT position on a rally.
I do not think this is the big one, and feel 8750 on the DOW will hold - actually do not think it will get that low this cycle, but future cycles, well watch out.
Please keep in mind that I am talking about the short-term of approximately 5 days.
If the interest rates really climb hard to 6.15 - 6.2%, then feel comfortable to say that this pullback will intensify with the downdraft in the UTY and BKX intensifying the quickest.
Seeya |
