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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (18115)	4/24/1998 3:41:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) of 50167

I like Nikkei action today-- so far solidly up although with US last night down one woud expect the spill over effect to hurt Japan's prospects. One good thing coming out of this final break of 'sympathetic selling', it seems now that investors are appreciative of regional weaknesses and strengths and world falling apart mentality is finally being destined to where it belongs i.e to dust bin of history. One needs an open mind and a clear headed approach as to where are we are heading, when big companies like MSFT beat numbers they are 'tech bellweathers' and if they expect better results going forward you better join the band wagon but make a difference to jump in sectors which were neglected and are expected to do better. Markets tend to correct and we will see this correction soon- one needs to lighten up a bit from positions which have shown exceptional returns like BKX sector and HFX. A bull nees to be as aggressive as a bear who misses no chance to put skids under this market even making and inventing news, a bull by knowing the pit- falls and preparing for it makes investments an exercise based on reasoning and logic whereas poor bear keeps waiting for that big disaster out of compulsion of pessimism will expect that which may drown the 'entire global equity markets' in waves of selling. This apparent break in 'dimino effect' of global markets to sell based on what happens in other markets is a positive development. Fundamental macro picture was never and will never be similar for most of these markets. The exaggeration of ASEAN crisis eating up corporate profits can now be seen clearly where are those 'prophets of doom' who back in Oct Nov Dec were predicting corporate profits to disappear as ASEAN crisis unfolds. Rather ASEAN crisis if any had a kind of gentler affect of cooling down an over heated situation and importing price stability. Selling of TB's Nimitz and all that fashionable dooms day crap of reducing revenues needs to be replaced by sensible appraoch and deal with the market on a realistic basis. Cautious when it overextends and bullish when it corrects and come in line to provide opportunity. Bull and bear is an out of fashion term one needs to look at market every day and devise strategy accordingly. Once BOVESPA was down 11% and HSI 6% in a single day and S&P could not take out 910 resistance some guys if I remember right shorted the market expecting that big meltdown next morning-- it was not to be instead we saw a frenzy of spectacular buying in ASEAN markets next day. Nice to be in the markets and watch out for regions which should come back up. One should focus on 1118 now if that breaks we have a more then even chance to test 20 days MA on SPM-- on the other hand I would not be surprised to see composite testing 1866 within next two weeks. I will expect SOX and other forward looking stocks to hold well during this anticipated round of selling.

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