<< seems to me to be a relatively complacent approach >>
Ray ... I have been in negotiations with various xDSL
and cablemodem folks ... in both cases, they have not
shown the thought patterns that go along with a sense
of immediacy ... still a lot of "what if" and "wait and see"
and "Let's get Mikey to try it".
The rubber has not hit the road yet ... it's very early
days (technology, marketing, infrastructure, mindset).
When big chunks of money start flowing, the sense of
complacency is apt to disappear overnight.
I can't call the market to save my life ... but I'm betting
on 50% - 100% increases in networkers, comm, xDSL, cable
in the 12 - 24 month timeframe.
I had hoped that BAY would show some reasonable numbers
and be the place of choice to "hang out" waiting for the
growth curve to kick in. Now I'm not so sure. I bought
ASND at the low and sold at 37 ... don't want to reenter
now ... CSCO is too plush for me ... so I'm shopping
around ... holding my BAY until I understand a better choice.
IOW ... my hit is that BAY is not all that bad a place
to be if you're thinking long term. Could go to 15, may not,
I haven't a clue ... but it will see 30 again ... and 35-40
at least when the xDSL/cable wave goes through.
I'm not taking current xDSL/cable "sound bytes" very seriously
now ... again, it's too early to forsee the winners ... and
relating the actual winners to the perceived winners is simply
impossible.
I realize this doesn't answer your question ... unless perhaps
it helps to remember that we are in the earliest days of the
web curve ...
I am thinking about ye olde days of playing D&D in the Microsoft
boardroom ... the standard response when casting a Augury spell
was "Those who survive will be rich ..."
I've laid out the networkers, made my estimates of upside and
down, ranked them in terms of risk-adjusted payoff ... and here
I am ... holding BAY and continuing to evaluate.
Bonne chance! |
