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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting
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To: Mr. BSL who wrote (2592)4/24/1998 10:39:00 AM
From: Ms. X  Read Replies (1) of 34808
 
Interest Rates. Are they heading up?

I have here a few charts that clue us into the interest rate
future. We are seeing some deterioration but no definite signals
of yet but enough deterioration to warrant a discussion.

Below is the TYX (30 year yield index), the UTY (PHLX Utility index)
and the Dow Jones Bond Average (DJBB). Combine these charts and the
current action in gold and oil, you can make a case for upcoming
higher interest rates.
*All charts Copyright Dorsey Wright & Associates.

TYX (30 year yield index)
Good resistance at the 6% level. A break of the brl would be a strong
signal to the upside. This would indicate higher yields.

61.25-----------------* -------------------------
61.00 *
60.75 X *
60.50 X O *
60.25 3 O *
60.00-------------X O ----------* --<--This would break brl and major resistance.
59.75 X X O X X <--restance and recent move
59.50 X O X X O X O X X
59.25 X O X O X O X X O X O X
59.00 X O 2 O X O X O X 4 X O X Med
58.75 ----X O X O X O X O X O X O X -------------
58.50 X O X O X O O O X O
58.25 X O O X O X
58.00 X X O O X
57.75 X O X O X
57.50 X O X ----------------O -------------------
57.25 O X
57.00 O X
56.75 O
56.50

UTY:
Tom always says "Watch the Utilities" Usually, when they
make a top it is prior to the market making a top. UTY has
obviously reversed down but it could be the start of a shakeout
and it can reverse up to break a triple top from here.
If it continues down, that is very negative for market and rates.

332 Top
330 -----------------------------------?-<--Could still reverse up
328 X X to make a triple top
326 X O X O
324 X O X O
322 X O 4
320 -------------------------+-X ----O -<--First sell signal
318 | X O in a while.
316 | X O
314 | X O Med
312 | X O <--Big shakeout
310 -----------------------X | X -----------------
308 X O X
306 X O 3
304 X 1 2
302 X O X
300 ---------- ------------X O X -----------------
298 X O Bot
296 X | <--Next double bottom sell.
294 X |
292 C X |
290 ---------- -- ----X O X | -----------------
288 X O X |
286 X O |
284 X |
282 X |
280 -------------------X ----+--------------------
278 X |
276 X |
274 X |
272 X X X |
270 -------A --X O B O X -- | -----------------
268 X O X O X O X | *
266 X O X O X O | *

DJBB:
No deterioration here yet. This is the longer term indicator.
Current reading 105.19

106.0------------+---------+----------------
105.8 | |
105.6 | | Top
105.4 | X
105.2 | 1 Med
105.0 -----------+---------X ---------------
104.8 | C <--Reversal here
104.6 | X B Bot
104.4 | X O A
104.2 | X O X
104.0 -----X ----| ----X 8 X ---------------
103.8 X O X | X O X
103.6 X O X O 2 7 9 |
103.4 X C X O X O X | <--First sell signal
103.2 B O 1 X O X |
103.0 -----X ----O --3 X --| ---------------
102.8 A | O X |
102.6 X X | O X |
102.4 X O X | O 6 |
102.2 X O X | O X |
102.0 -8 O X ----| --4 X --| ---------------
101.8 X O X | O 5 |
101.6 X 9 X | O X |
101.4 X O | O X |
101.2 X | O |
101.0 ----------| --------| ---------------
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