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Biotech / Medical : IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID
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To: Howard Hoffman who wrote (1549)4/24/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: Roudy   of 1762
 
Hi Howard,

I think $120M/yr could be the low end if sales continue on their current path. In speaking with IR they feel March numbers (10.9M) are representative of a normal month's sales. Also, this represents US sales only. With European approval expected soon we could see sales up significantly although they will only show up on IDEC's earnings as royalties instead of sales.

IR says that all fundamentals are still in tack and the analysts following IDEC are 100% behind them. Three of the analyst reiterated buys at $36. I agree with you on people taking profits. Those who are trading on technical analysis would be out of this stock. It is one sick puppy on technicals. In particular, Point & Figure charting analysis couldn't be worse. Traditional charting is very weak and generally technicals like this are saying something is wrong. I have not been able to find any chinks in the armour other than Coulter fluffing its skirts up. They have a year to two years of rough road before they can even hope to come to market. First to market has its advantages. We may be seeing some momentum players in and out of the stock as well. The shorts have been climbing on to. Short position has increased for the last several months and it looks like they are going to keep on us until they get squeezed or something goes wrong. A good example is Agouron who has a 25% short position on it and hasn't been able to shake them yet.

If you go to the annual meeting give us some feedback if you can. I would like to go, but it is out of my range.

Don
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