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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 139.09

-0.8%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3018)	4/24/1998 12:58:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (5) of 9256

Mark, I am really glad you started this thread. I have learned a good deal about an industry I have been part of for 27 years for one thing. For another its a sheer pleasure to read the cumulative wit of the posters. re: Your call for opinions: I bought Seagate two days ago. I basically took my whole position for that one. I am still on the fence for QNTM and am just now trying to digest their 10Q and CC. I am also long on a small WDC position (I bought on the buy-out story). But WDC doesn't figure into my longer term strategy. I am staying away from components. Most of you on the thread know that I am very bearish on them. I still believe that overcapacity in components exceeds that of the DD makers. I now believe we have seen the lows for the DD stocks. If that is true then you are correct to point out that most of us didn't recognize them. They date back to January and obviously there has been accumulation since then. I for one, was saying we had not seen the worse and expected the DD makers to set new lows after the January buying rush. It just never materialized and the buyers have held steadfast in spite of the bad news (that did materialize.) I think we will see two more quarters of marginal performance. But I also think both QNTM and SEG will have new low cost models for the 4th Qtr buying season. I am also heartened a bit by Dataquest's new forecast for PCs. Check it out at: gartner3.gartnerweb.com After reading that article you may want to go back to home and check out their opinion on capital spending by the semi cos. Its a subject near and dear to my heart. Lawrence won't like the PC forecast because it suggests a slip in revenues along with an increase in units. He would be right to be concerned if he is. It is an underlying issue that DD and PC makers have slipping ROE numbers and potential. I am sure it upsets his keen sense of value. But this market is not entirely rational and as others sense a return to level inventories I think there is money to made in the DD stocks over the next few quarters. remember that 401K money keeps pouring in and then there is the japanese postal savings freeing up for investment where it will. Long term in the DD sector a different story. I am not sure what to think. Here is a link to my Seagate rationale. Message 4167830 Now I am just gonna sit back, put on my catchers mitt, pour a scotch, and wait for Lawrence's comments. I am expecting them to come in low, fast, and hard. I hope they come soon. Scotch dulls my hand/eye coordination. Best, Stitch

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