I think Cisco's only discernable weakness is their reliance on routers for 70% of their revenues. If someone were to come up with a better way of reducing the networking industry's dependence on routers, then perhaps that might make Cisco a little uncomfortable.
The layer 3 switches Benhamou is talking about is for the LAN. They're different from the layer 3 switches that Newbridge is working on, which is for the WAN and is based on ATM technology. All the WAN ATM vendors including Ascend are working on this. I think if Cisco is going to be hurt, it won't be from COMS. Rather, it will be layer 3 WAN switches, which can provide high-performance IP services with QoS (scalable QoS is the holy grail that ISP's are looking for). Ascend, Cisco and Newbridge are all working on this, but it looks like the carriers really like Ascend's solution.
Speaking about Stratacom, it really looks like they've gone downhill since Cisco took them over. Stratacom used to be the leader, but now it looks more like they're losing focus. And now this software bug on their BPX's? If they don't get their ship in order, they will miss the giant wave of ATM buildouts taking place right now.
IMO, ATM is going to become more important in the future. I know a lot of people disagree, including the Cisco faction. IP over Sonet versus IP/ATM over Sonet. If the latter wins, then Ascend and Newbridge have a chance to hurt Cisco. So far, it looks like IP/ATM is much closer to providing absolute QoS, RSVP and other IP-based QoS mechanisms aren't working very well in large ISP networks.
Just a few random thoughts...
Bucky89 |
