Hummingbird Comm. (HUMC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Hummingbird Comm. (HUMC)

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To: Bill Arndt who wrote (1560)	4/25/1998 12:24:00 PM
From: Martin Goldenberg	Read Replies (2) of 2018

Bill: I would have liked to attend the Annual Meeting but I have other commitments that are immovable. I believe Paul is planning to attend. Perhaps he can confirm. HUM is at a difficult transition right now. When the 2Q results came out it was hard to contain my disappointment. Although my earnings estimate was pretty much on the money, the overall revenue was lower than I expected. This meant that connectivity sales had slowed. We all knew that it was coming sooner or later but I did not think it would happen so soon....especially with their PCX market share having grown from 54% to 62%. Although this number was issued independently from HUM, it lead me to believe that PCX sales growth was still running in the 20% year over year range. Looking at the revenue numbers, Their PCX sales have clearly dropped to the 10%-12% range. This means that business intelligence SW sales have a ways to go to bridge the revenue gap. This 3rd quarter is, in my mind, a critical one. I believe there is more revenue to come from the UK deal and HUM will have to announce fairly regular sales, acquisition, and alliance deals in their new BI (data warehousing) business to keep investor confidence up. i.e. that their new business venture is healthy, growing, and is on track with their projected 20-25% earnings growth. The closing market price on Friday clearly underscores investor concern on this point. The connectivity business is a cash cow and its income will be used to grow the BI business. But this does not obviate the above considerations. Although PCX software sales in Asia are hardly existent, I think it is interesting to know about the potential market strength there However, the future health of the company clearly hinges on its ability to get the BI business up and running quickly and to their projected plan. A steady stream of good news from HUM appears essential at this point in time to keep their stock price buoyant. Objective views from others would be appreciated. I believe Sorkin can do it but the numbers in the current quarterly earnings report constitutes reality. Martin

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