Really Tom, if you're gonna invest in this sector, you better have up-to-date information:
Q3FY98
219 Purchased
78 WIP
261 FG
558 Total
10.6 Turns
707 Desktop
787 High-end
I think the threat of channel stuffing has subsided mostly. (P.S. to Sam, it was Seagate, not Maxtor, that was at fault here. They didn't slow production when they lost share, so they destroyed the market, and took down WDC and Maxtor with them.) Everybody knows any further action guarantees mutually assured destruction. But while one symptom is gone (high channel inventory), the other remains (aggressive pricing), and the disease is as bad as ever (excess supply capacity).
Where I part company is that I've learned to love the bomb. What's wrong with a little destruction derby if it wrings out all the marginal players and fixes the supply problems for good? It won't happen, but I can dream, can't I? |
