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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (17277)	4/25/1998 2:25:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) of 94695

Bill, just an observation, last year from the April 1997 lows to August 5 highs the market moved up around 30% (apx. 733 to 962 SPX). Since October 97 to the most recent high the market moved about the same amount of 30% (from apx. 870 to 1032 SPX). After correcting during Aug 97 the market started to go to new high SPX 985 or so or 2% above previous high only to swiftly tank by the end of October. Based on those aproximation the reflex rally if there will be any may carry the market to 1150, which is a number floating around E-Wavers, and is close to your 9400 (9600) on the DJIA. I will anticipate that all participants will be prepared for the "explosive summer rally" only to be dissapointed as in 1996. The dipster will be burned so badly that the market will drag the economy down as the wealth effect starts to evaporate. Buy this week Business Week, htere are two interesting articles about the future of commerce and also stock trading. As to the former, I anticipate very low pricing power for most businesses as a result. Also on PBS there was last night a interesting article about America's middle class diminishing as a result of sacrity of adequate $50 to $60K jobs, and the effect of NAFTA and AL Chainsaw approach on a variety of companies and jobs. Sorry to bring so many fundamentals into the picture but they will actually influence the market. Watch unemployement number a slowdown in Job creation will kill this market!! Jobs are exported en-masse to SE Asia, India Mexico etc. so, son as SE Asia will stabilise or recover, the $ will slide, inflation will rise and already Japan showed us the way <ggg> BWDIK Haim

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