Frosty-
De-Ja-Vu all over again.
The counter-attack from the home-front begins.
First comes Wole, the only difference being that he no longer represents Genesis-Merchant, and has a 'partner in crime' at Cruttendon Roth, Curtis Hogue, who also covers VVUS.
Next to play a card - Charlie O. - still with PW of course, and firmly encamped in the VIVUS trenches. I agree that he will be issuing his own buy rec soon, but in a carefully orchestrated and tactical fashion.
The player from CS First Boston used to be Rebecca Yarchower, but is now James Kelly. They are a bit more conservative, so we might not see them jump on the wagon quite yet. But Dain-Bosworth might be expected to say something constructive here. I have no idea about how Wessels Arnold might play it.
But the game has changed directions once more! I would expect some useful news from Menlo Park soon. I don't think the blitz would have started without plenty of ammo in reserve. VVUS principals will be in the middle of this fray. After all, they are promoters at heart. That's okay with me, since they're on my side.
From the other side: Be ready for the renewed attack on Wole Fayemi, ridiculing him for his earlier VVUS projections. I suspect that PW won't play until this blast effect dies down. Then, the good Doctor, Padma-Nathan, can express his opinion and perhaps,everyone's favorite rag, Barron's, can say a few words. This would probably complete the cycle pretty well.
IMHO it is foolish to think that much of the 30 mill. plus 2-day volume did not include heavy short-covering - profit-taking. Huge profits have been made on the short side, and some money is coming off the table. Certainly, plenty of new short positions are being established on the way up.
I have chosen to play VVUS this time mostly as a trader, but I only play from the long side, or sell covered calls. Friday I took a 40% gain on stock I had purchased at 9. I will buy it back. I still have some stock purchased at 20 which I plan to hold until I'm made whole. But I think the way to go here is buy the dips and sell the bulges. Simple, huh? I don't know why it never occurred to me before. (gg)
Incidentally, I expect to see Brad trading from the long side soon, if this is not already the case. Brad? Right or wrong?
Good luck,
Richard |
