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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Stitch who wrote (3260)4/25/1998 5:35:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (3) of 9980
 
Stitch, it is late Saturday and no one has commented on the rescue package in Japan.

Here is the proposed structure:

The stimulus plan contains four trillion yen ($30.5 billion) in temporary income tax cuts -- two trillion each in 1998 and
1999 -- and 7.7 trillion yen ($58.7 billion) in public works spending.

It has four trillion yen ($30.5 billion) to boost the depressed real estate market and help small businesses suffering under a
credit crunch by troubled big banks.

In also will allow the cash-rich savings accounts operated by the post office to pump four trillion yen ($30.5 billion) into the
financial markets.

Therefore, out of the 16 trillion yen we have 15.7 trillion in those three programs. The income tax is over two years, so this side of the stimulus is only about $15 billion per year. This does not seem to me to be very stimulative to the domestic economy in Japan. Any one would like to venture an opinion on this?

If all the big bang of releasing the post office savings from its shackles is only $30.5 billion that is a very small of the total (we were talking about 2% of these funds possibly leaking into the world markets or $200 billion annually, but that seems to have been shelved). Furthermore, that is barely enough to counteract financial institutions selling their stocks to improve their cash position and bring their net assets to the illusive 8%. By gosh, this will not stop a single raid on the Nikkei.

Finally, the 30.5 billions to boost the real estate market, how do they plan to make that work? Will they close the weak holders and take a bath on the real estates holding? Will the government step in and actually be owner of distressed real estate (buying it outright?). In both cases, this sum seems to be less than 5% of the problem.

Anyone cares to comment?

Zeev
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