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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 139.09

-0.8%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: shane forbes who wrote (3045)	4/25/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) of 9256

Shane; <<Thus, similar to DRAM, when I say stabilize I do not mean prices going up but instead price declines will start returning to the long term rates of decline.>> I admit I knew what you meant but thought I would give you a chance to explain. I have a graph here from Hambreacht and Quist I wish I could just post but it shows industry ap taking a huge dump starting in Q1-97 through Q3-97 of a magnitude of about 26%. Its a graph of the total asp of WDC, QNTM, and SEG. I suspect Q4-97 and Q1-98 would show a linear progression in the drop. From Q3-96 to Q1-97 ASPs were actually rising. Remeber, this doesn't account for increased capacity models but runs across the product lines of all deleverable models. Also, this summarized published retail prices. <<To be optimistic once the Asian currency devaluations stabilize (and I hope and pray that (with the exception of China) this has now happened) the maniacal reductions are running their course.>> We are in a situation where we need to start differentiating currencies. I expect the Ringiit to crater to 4+. China is an intrigueing question. Japan is very scary. Best, Stitch

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