s, funny money port.
i believe your question will be better answered by either jenna or judy.
on the other hand, i have a cyberfriend who after severed by DH in Florida, decided to go into full time trading - his stocks are all large caps, goal is 1-10 days, 3-7% gain. i have witnessed his stock picks, most are sound, (all based on TA charts, with little FA added) and his biggest mistake is not held long enough, latest example is hwp, he has been trading it between 60-63/4, so he exited at 63 when it faltered at 63 but didn't re-enter at 61 1/2 and missed the run.
i always said to him if he paid just a little bit more attn to sentiments and events, go with guts more than the charts say, he would do much better. this guy bot 500 msft at 128 and 1000 cci at 110 back in dec, before they fell another 3-5%, and SOLD at breakeven ! he also traded 500 wla from 118 to 123 then rebot at 116 only to see it down to 109 and when it recovered to his buy point, he SOLD! He had bot and sold mer & bac in the 60's, jpm in 100, all went subsequently 40-50% higher from where he sold. The mistake was made because he was overly concerned with the overall market direction and also because he feels he couldn't go thru a temp downturn (no income w/capital tied up) it is more psychological than real - his wife works full time, they dont have to worry about living expenses, but the psychological pressure is there and that is what did him in - lots of trades in the right stocks w/o real gain to show for it - had he not traded those, just held them and sat thru the temp 5-10% draw down, he would be up 60% instead of only 10% with far less work. But a 10% drawdown to him was a 30 to 40K and w/o a job he felt he couldn't handle it. Actually the bigger mistake he admitted is not buy them back when trend was clear that market was not going to tank, but stocks already went up 10-15% from his sell point - again, psychology did him in.
he always argues everything is in the chart, yet i feel with great companies, one would do better by go for ones conviction for the next qtr, next year, then looking at the chart.
csco chart looked aweful in apr 97 and that was precisely when one should buy. :) |
