Interesting comments regarding OPEC and oil pricing. Is that 40% aspect stable, rising or shrinking over time ?
Hard to conceive how suppliers could forecast price increases approximating 50% in the face of severe financial deflation in Asia rolling outward towards other countries, compounded by Japan's multi-year recession and lackluster efforts at rekindling its fires, plus the reduced consumption of the passing mild winter season here in US, plus the impending threat of alternative sources. GM is starting a billboard campaign here in Silicon Valley for electric cars - possibly due to mandated State required vehicle mix, not to mention things like the unreported inflation putting a real squeeze on discretionary spending, plus governments propensity to tax more over time and recently raising taxes at the pump yet again, if my fact benumbed mind has it right, you get the point. I don't think their dreams are going to be reality.
Would be interesting to see the percentage of non-OPEC over time though. Also, why isn't Syrian oil considered OPEC ? Maybe a more revealing metric would be non-MiddleEastern oil, anybody ?
PS: To Bill or anyone who cares, my charts say no BK till the fall and maybe not even then. I expect a higher DOW by then too, of course. |
