Jason, sorry, didn't realize anything I said was argumentative. Just making some points. Didn't call you any names. You're sounding like a whiner now.
"My main point all along has been that in a world where competition exists on many fronts, including from some very large entrenched players, blindly believing earnings estimates is dangerous."
We aren't blindly following earnings estimates, but using the numbers is the easiest way to try to make a point to you. We're following a huge story; there will be a huge demand for broadband communications in the future, and no one really ready to meet that demand.
You seem to think fiber is the way, but refuse to talk to the fact that it is estimated that it is uneconomical to run fiber to about two thirds of the nation. And when it is run, WinStar can beat the costs to connect by a factor of $4000 to $100,000. You mention cable modems, but I don't think is even a viable option to hardly any business in the nation. You mention xDSL, but you've hardly made any decent argument for that at all. You haven't mentioned satelites, which could have been one of your strongest arguments. And you have failed to bring up any of WinStar's other wireless competitors, such as Teligent, ARTT, Teleport/AT&T, or even anything to do with the recent LMDS auction. Baby Bells??? Ha, a dinosaur about extinct if they don't catch on and start investing in someone like WinStar. All in all, you've shown very little here that would indicate that you have any grasp at all on the broadband problem and solutions.
"the company continues to show accelerating negative EBITDA"
Again, must not be doing your DD. Peak EBITDA losses are (hopefully) behind them. Earnings report in two weeks should prove this.
"Please, didn't you think there was anything to my point about bondholders demanding high level of interest and putting themselves in line ahead of stockholders?"
No. The last financing package was at 7%. That's hardly a high level of interest. I'd only care who was in line ahead of me if we were heading to bankruptcy. That's not gonna happen. In the mean time, I'll let the bondholders earn their 7% because I'm gonna make several hundred percent because of the improvements they are allowing my company to make using their money. Should I worry every day because a bank has a loan on my house and are in line before me to get paid off? Nope, don't worry about that either. If I go and take out a second mortgage on my house, and now they're in line ahead of me, should I worry about that? Wouldn't bother me either, especially if I take their $50,000 and use it to increase the value of my house by $100,000. Guess I just don't get your point.
OK, you don't like my numbers. So then here's my arguement;
There will be a huge demand for the products and services WinStar has to offer. Projected revenues of $350 billion or so in half a dozen years. Baby Bells are doing nothing to get ready for this. Lot of solutions exist; fiber optic, wireless, satelites, cable modems, xDSL, etc. Wireless has to be the cheapest to deploy. WinStar has proven wireless works. WinStar only needs 1% of this market to become a $300 stock in 6 years or so. WinStar has assembled one of the best management teams teams ever put together. WinStar has proven over the last few years they can execute. WinStar has a couple years head start on most of their viable competition. Baby Bells, GTE, Worldcom, AT&T, Sprint, British Telecom, etc, all very highly desire what WinStar has. Stories have it that AT&T, Sprint, and BT have each already made an offer. If the bidding begins, offers of $100 per share are very probable (in the short term).
Well, that probably wraps up most of my story. So what part of that story don't you accept or believe in now? And why?
Redwings are ready to start again. Gotta go. |
