Is it OK for an unknown to toot his horn? A thread called "Top 10
1998 Stocks" was started on January 1st. I posted a list of nine longs
and one short on January 2nd:
"To: Al Sinopoli (3 )
From: Scott Ward Friday, Jan 2 1998 12:04AM ET
Reply # of 65
Al:
Ten stock picks for 1998 include four Year-2000 stocks and one
short that I think will lose revenue because of the "Millennium Bug":
Alydaar Software (ALYD), 15 3/4 (Y2K remediation software);
Ampex Corp (AXC), 2 3/8 (oversold; large-scale data compression/
storage); Biotechnology General (BTGC), 10 3/4 (biotechnology
company with excellent products and a very promising pipeline);
CACI (CACI), 19 13/16 (information technology outsourcing and
Y2K remediation; very attractive P/E); Cyberguard Corp (CYBG),
5 5/8 (computer information encryptation; savaged by year-end
tax-loss selling); General Magic Corp (GMGC), 1 3/8 (manufactures
"Serengeti", a communications and information service that allows
cellular contact with voice and data terminals); Heartsoft Corp
(HTSF), 3/8 (educational software directly marketed to schools);
Sapiens International (SPNSF), 7 13/16 (data migration and Y2K
services); and Topro Corp (TPRO dba TAVA Technologies), 6 1/2
(integration of factory-floor systems and Y2k services).
The short is Cisco Systems, but not at current prices. I think CSCO
will run up in the early part of 1998, perhaps to $70.00 to $75.00,
then decline sharply toward the end of the year. Presently I'm long
CSCO and plan to short at 70."
So far in 1998, one has lost money (BTGC, -27%). Five of the longs
are up incrementally (ALYD +5%, AXC +16%, CACI +5%, HTSF
+33%, and SPNSF +13%).
Three have done very well (TAVA, formerly TPRO, +112%, CYBG
+150%, and GMGC +459%).
The short, Cisco, has performed as anticipated so far, running into
the low 70's for a 26% gain. I plan to let it run to 75 or to June 1st,
whichever comes first, and will then short it.
If equal amounts had been invested in each stock, the gain to date
would be an average +79.2%.
For the record, I sold half my ALYD at 19 (+21%), all my AXC at 3
(+26%), and all my SPNSF at 9 1/4 (+18%), so the actual average
gain is a bit higher. Thanks for the opportunity to brag. |
