Paul and all: Thanks for your analysis here and elsewhere.
What I know is that IMRS has tanked a number of times, and every time it has come back very strongly and reached new highs. Ever since I first purchased shares in January 97 at a split adjusted price of about 9, IMRS has tanked at least 5 times I can name. First, after their initial earnings report as a public company in January, from 22 to 17-18. Then a 50% drop in March, 97 from which they rebounded powerfully to become the class of the Y2K heap. Then again last summer, they dropped; November, 97 was a 30% drop, roughly; and now another 20%
If we look at this plunge in terms of pre-split prices, they went from roughly 60(40) to 45-ish(30), a complete retracement from where they were when they reported last quarter's numbers. All along, the institutional ownership has been rising. I have this funny feeling that the institutions create their own buying opportunities by selling some of their positions, precipitating a price drop and buying back in with more shares. However, anyone who bought at the low in March 97 and held, would be up by 500%. Risky? Nanda?
All of which is simply to say that, regardless of whether you believe technicals or funadamentals will rule in the short term, what is also going on here is a repeating pattern that has not stopped IMRS on its inexorable march to becoming the $2 Billion company Sanan is intent on becoming.
Yes, there may be a temporary technical correction, or even a shift to a more funadamental valuation of IMRS as it asserts(for the second time)a decreasing dependence on Y2K. As for the backlog, recall that two quarters ago it was $90 million. Now Sanan refuses to comment, except to say it is bigger. I call that bullish, regardless of where the money is coming from. As for margins, I think Sanan is simply saying they will not be skipping a beat in transition to new outsourcing work.
There seem to be namy opinions here and no consensus on whether it's up or down. I still think the long term trend is up. |
