ahhaha and Emory.... sorry: long post....
I don't try to study other gold funds at this point as in my 403b retirement account it is easier to move just whithin Fidelity Funds. I love their Select funds. I know that Fidelity gold and precious metal funds have not been as competitive lately but that they did very well in February.
Regarding moving average, I agree that they are not that useful. Here is one set of indicators I use (I have a bunch that I group, and showed on this board the Negative and Positive Volume Indexes). Here is another bunch (Accumulation/Distribution, Relative Strength Index, Stochastic Oscillator and Bollinger Bands... very busy charts included... sorry.... but used to show what ALTA, BGO and RANGY could be doing... This TA predicts: (nothing certain though!... just a guess slightly better than 50% odds, I think!)
ALTA: could retract a bit and ALTA is "expensive" right now
BGO could remain undecided and I would not buy it or sell it
RANGY could move significantly up and RANGY is now at a good entry point.
during the next few days...
Of course, if Price of gold takes off or sinks, these 3 will could move with the price of gold, independent of TA...
ALTA ( members.aol.com ) graph shows that the RSI is too high (hit 70) and one should think that some retraction could occur. It also shows Stochastic Oscillator is high and just turn down... and ALTA is hitting upper Bollinger band and volume is decreasing... ALTA is technically a sell here (only to keep some profits... As said before... ALTA is a great stock right now... Accumulation is still occuring... a winner)
BGO,( members.aol.com ) on the other hand is going sideways and there is not clear buy signal in my book. Accumulation is not impressive but this company could take off, after digesting the extra shares coming on the market.... then.... potential could be great.
RANGY (Rangold Ressources, a South African company involved in gold mining and exploration, with interests in 5 other african countries)(I own big time, since I sold ALTA) ( members.aol.com ) has also done sideways moves (like BGO) but accumulation (mucho impressive) and increased volume suggest a coming break out (up)... especially that this beaten down stock is now completely squeezed in its Bollinger Bands (a pattern which is always followed, usually within very few trading days, by an abrupt break out (up or down...hopefully up!).... furthermore, Relative Strength Index is climbing (overall) and not in the 70 range (would be too high then, like for ALTA)... lastly, Stocahstic Oscillator is favorable... Actually, RANGY is a trextbook picture of a probable break out (in my book anyway)... future will tell.
But I agree... If one thinks that we are now in a gold bull: why trade?!
Gaston |
