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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 191.74

-1.3%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: pat mudge who wrote (2050)	4/27/1998 3:25:00 AM
From: Milkman	Read Replies (1) of 12623

I'll ditto what bill said about LU and the 80 channel development along with Pirelli's 64 channel development and a couple others I can't think of right now. One of the wild cards is where does CIEN stand with their next development step. LU's 80 channel if it makes it out of development on schedule by the end of the year, will then need to go through the requisite testing and trial deployment with the Carriers. Conservatively 6-8 months? The other factor is costing the next generation. The rub is as capacity doubles the cost usually is more that double. This may likely add more delay unless they cut margins or development/production costs. This is all the standard leap frog scenario that is so common in high technology. What I find most interesting from the article was the reference to DWDM adding value for the LEC's, CLEC's, Etc... "Optical Networking" I find it interesting that Alcatel sees the carriers as "ambigious". I think you will see Manufacturers developing products on the if you build it they will come mentality. I also think there will be a partnering push from several of the more progressive carriers to develop advanced networking applications. Thus the alliance with CISCO is great positioning for CIEN in the medium to long term. The Cambrian product looks interesting from the marketing info on the web page. They are semi low tech (Low cost) concentrating on the OC-48 capacity transmission terminations(definitely more applicable to the LECs). Regards, Milkman P.S. Wish I had known you were in Dallas(@TI). Would have enjoyed meeting you. Let me know next time and I'll buy you lunch and give you a tour of the lab.

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