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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 139.59-6.2%3:59 PM EST

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To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (5213)4/27/1998 8:09:00 AM
From: Clarksterh  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Jay - you would have substantially more credibility if you didn't present a warped story:

Intel is now at .25 micron on all wafer starts. This doubles the chips per wafer from .35. Consequently, INTC requires NO incremental capacity to drive YOY unit growth 100% in Micros.

Wrong. This completely ignores the fact that they moved from P-MMX to P-II's in the process. And of course P-II's use, at a guess, about 50% more transistors. Thus, their unit capacity growth has only grown about 30%.

PC market segmentation (sub $1000) is commoditizing the chip sets in this important new growth market (37% of new units vs 5% last year)

You left out an important relevant fact for this statistic. It only applies to consumer PCs. Not to business machines. And business machines are still the vast majority of the market, and they are, so far, largely ignoring the new low priced machines. Also, if unit growth increases substantially, which it did in the latest numbers I've seen for consumer PCs (January), then it might even be good. The lower prices are substantially increasing demand.

Bottom line: It may be that the PC market is going through a transition, and that is worrisome. But the case is nowhere near as dire as the bears would have us believe.

Clark
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