Hi Iqbal--long time since we chatted
>>anyone who misses this point which drives the markets and still want to make comparisons to Nikkei at 36000 or 1929<<
I noticed this reference in your post and I am sure that it is just coincidence that I happened to make reference to these events in my post to OJ. But just as a point of clarification, I would like to state that I was not comparing our situation today with the Nikeii peak at 39000, if my foggy memory serves me right--and not 36000---or the situation in 1929. The point that I was trying to make to OJ was that "buy and hold" strategies work best only when one buys at the right levels -- if one buys at a peak, it can take a long time to get good return using a buy and hold strategy. I also believe that we are closer to a peak than a trough at this point---though that is just a subjective opinion.
Really, it is in some respects analogous to someone buying INTC, TXN, AMAT, WDC, JBIL and others, close to their peaks last year. These are all solid companies which will do fine in the long run -- but it may take a while to achieve the type of return that most people would like to achieve when one buys at the highs and then one encounters a sharp decline.
As far as the question of over-valuation is concerned, I guess my attitude is in part governed by the fact that I am basically "cheap".
I have not been following most of your posts over the past few months while I have been involved in other things --- but the few that I have followed have been very accurate and impressive in terms of key levels for the SPX and SOX.
I am curious about one thing -- when a market is making new highs, you have sometimes identified higher levels--which would obviously be new further new highs---that should offer resistance. How do you establish these levels of resistance?? For my part, once a market/stock is at new highs, I have no sense of where the resistance would be.
Regards |
