Mark,
Welcome over here to the IBM thread. It looks like I can use some help defending my IBM Put position, (ggg). Unfortunately, the new comers over here have not gone back to read my early analysis of IBM. I originally started buying IBM Puts as a hedge against my INTC profits. This goes back to January 1997, when IBM was at 170 pre split. In looking back over the 15 months since then, I think almost everything that I predicted is playing out as expected, except IBM's stock price. What I didn't realize at the time, is that IBM had to continue buying back their stock, at almost any price, if their earnings were to look respectable.
Regards,
Jules
PS...It took almost a year and a half before my Intel investment started really paying off, but remember INTC has split twice since then. So no, if history repeats, I don't think we will not have to wait 9 years for our short position in IBM to pay off. But as always, I reserve the right to change my mind at any time, or to be completely wrong. |
