XIRCOM (XIRC) 5/16/95 @ 16-1/8 Message Board

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Technology Stocks : XIRCOM (XIRC) 5/16/95 @ 16-1/8

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To: Alan Stalter who wrote (842)	4/27/1998 1:00:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) of 1096

I think xirc is fully or overvalued based on looking at it's earnings est for this year and next and it's growth rate. Estimates for this year ending sept are .6 and next year .85 according to yahoo. XIRC's traditional growth rate is questionable since they have frequently disappointed, but even if you give them an very optimistic PE of 30, then 30 x .6 = 18. We're less than half way through the year. Given XIRC tendency to disappoint I'd give a PE of 20. 30 x .85 = 25 upside for the next 1 1/2 yrs. Based on value and trading I think the upside from here is 20-21. I think the downside is 14-15. This is assuming the market stays in a trading range. I don't think the market will go much higher... for at least several months. However, all this being said the market ignores value in the short term. XIRC looks strong today. We could see 19-20 real soon if the market doesn't tank. However, at that point I would definately go short. If I owned XIRC I would probably take about 1/2 my profits off the table with any price above 17. Jim

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