NSCP is up to over 50 right now (I am putting in a real time data feed along with a proprietary fundamental/technical analysis program - eventhough I can't put my faith in charts, there are no real reasonalbly priced fundamental analysis programs out there, so I will build my own), so there is a little upward momentum. But to be honest, secondaries are not good for investors short term (my personal experience). Then again, NSCP has broken more than one record. I still think it is a good investment, but not at those prices. If MSFT's new offerings are only above average, the secondaries may not tank, but there are better places to risk my money. If they tank far enough, I would buy them, but they have to shave off a decent amount of their current premium. MS has correctly indicated a price at the absolute peak valuation that a cash flow anlaysis would support (well actually a little above, and we probably use very similar models - if I were the underwriter, I would price them similarly, but since I'm not the underwriter receiveing contingent fees or commissions I feel it is richly priced). If the offering closes at or above 47, I know the market is acting extremely irrational again and would prepare for a decent correction (remember the boom/bust cycle).
Oh yeah, please no "I told you so's," at least if I'm wrong :-) |
