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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 174.27

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3:13 PM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (10270)	4/27/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) of 152472

If Asia weakens further that should keep the Fed from raising rates as you say, which is actually a positive. I think you are right that Greenspan is quite worried about Asia. He is quite focused on the dangers of a 29 type crash. Personally, I think it is unlikely that either Japan or China will crash. Basically because neither has a huge amount of external debt. And both are quite tightly managed. The big danger with Japan is that it continues to just muddle along. A recession. And then continued slow growth. With little loan capital available inside Japan. I'm not sure that all of that is so bad for the US these days, with our economy in danger of overheating. Korea was a lot less stable, but its financial crisis appears to be contained. Basically because they are taking enough reform steps for the banks etc. to be willing to roll over loans to them, at higher rates. The pain in the streets is just beginning however, I agree. But I'm interested in hearing your realistic worst case. How might it unfold? Doug

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