off topic
Hi Stefan,
Re: super traders and the ability to consistently predict short-term price movements.
You may or may not be correct, that a very small contingent of traders really does posses such a talent. I have no clear opinion on the subject, one way or the other. However, the mere existence of consistently successful traders does not justify the conclusion that their "talent" is real and lasting.
The population of traders is very, very large. Some of these, by random chance, are bound to be unusually successful, in any given time-frame. The longer the time-frame in question, the fewer wildly successful traders one should expect to encounter (also, the fewer wildly _unsuccessful_ ones, as it is no easier to make consistently wrong guesses than accurate ones.) So, statistical theory mandates that, for every so-many thousand mediocre traders, one can't avoid but encounter a Larry Williams.
Note that the above argument does not preclude the possibility that there _do exist_ real super traders, apart from and in addition to the the above-mentioned statistical outliers. To the extent that they do exist, and their skill is an acquired one, I wish you luck in your bid to join their ranks.
As for the Random Walk Theory, I agree with you that it is not valid. It has been established to my satisfaction that the market is not efficient in the Random Walk sense. I imagine we can all agree on that conclusion. Anyone who doubts it would not be reading this forum, in any event, as he would consider it a gross waste of his time.
Best regards,
RB |
