Regarding script #'s
The refills of 4,290 from 4,393 looks good. Down only 2.3%. This tells me that MUSE has a loyal patient base.
New scripts down sharply to about 1/2 of what it was before Viagra came out. Who didn't expect this type of drop? I expect new script #'s to continue dropping for one or two more weeks before recovering.
Viagra had over 113,000 new scripts last week compared to the 36,000 from the prior week. The highest MUSE new script # ever was 17,500 during its initial release. 36,0000 + 113,000=149,000 and assuming that IMS data accounts for about 65% of actual scripts then the actual number is about 229,000. If lets say 20% of these new scripts were from dissatisfied prior MUSE users. This leaves 183,000 and assuming Viagra works on 50% of this pool, this leaves over 90,000 men who will need alternative treatment. If 1/2 of these men decide to give MUSE a crack then this gives us a potential for 45,000 new MUSE scripts to be written as a result of the first 2 weeks of Viagra exposure.
BTW a pullback of 7/8 on a day when the NASDAQ is down almost 50 points ain't all that bad.
VLAD |
