Hi Bhag,
I always shy away from offering advice on particular stocks because everyone's finances are a little different; you may be at a stage in your life when you shouldn't be taking big bets--in other words, there are just too many variables for someone like me to say that IMUL is a good buy for everyone. What I can say is that I own the stock (my cost basis is under the current price--I've owned it for about 18 months) and that I am confident that IMUL will find a new partner, probably this year, and that its two trial will be successful. I also believe that Wall Street is undervaluing IMUL because pension fund managers don't find allergy drugs to be sexy products, in the way that AIDS and cancer products are sexy. Another advantage to IMUL is that it has few competitors pursuing the same market and can carry forward its current research program without additional funding.
Of course, I have a vested interest in believing this as well! Objectively, IMUL's market value (now under $300M) is very, very cheap for a late-stage biotech with about $80M in cash. But I'm sure you're aware, and IMUL has certainly proved this over the last month, that biotech stocks are not for widows and orphans. If IMUL's Allervax trials fail, you'll lost most of your money, and fast. First results due are in early June for Allervax Cat (preliminary results for Allervax Ragweed were released in February and were encouraging). Success should bring IMUL's stock price up by at least $3; failure would cause it to plunge again. IMUL's trials are very well designed and very conservative (double-blinded), but you never really can tell what the outcome will be.
Paul |
