Enjoyed your post Bill. My views on the possibility of a "crash" are as follows.
Will there be a stock market crash?
Absolutely
When will the market crash?
Maybe tomorrow, next week, next month, next 3 months, next 6 months, next 12 months or next 24 months.
How do I know the market will crash?
Because the analysts tell me so, the WSJ tells me so, the IBD tells me so, Newsweek tells me so, Barrons tells me so and my neighbor tells me so.
How do they know the market will crash?
Because P/Es are sky high, Price/Sales are sky high, dividend yields are a joke, revenues are falling, earnings are falling and stock prices are simply outrageous.
How long will the crash last?
Ah, the MOST important question.
This is the one question that all the experts avoid like the plague.
Every market analyst has predicted a crash of anywhere from 5% to 50% sometime in the next 3 to 18 months, but NOT ONE that I know of has tried to predict HOW LONG THE CRASH WILL LAST.
The real panic won't start until the market goes down and STAYS down for at least six months. Then all hell will break loose.
Jim |
