While the stock would be sure to take a hit in the short term, the launch and satellite are insured and I don't think it would be a big deal if this launch failed.
Each of the previous launches was important for different reasons. Without ECHO I, there was no business. The successful launch of II allowed DISH some backup capability and allowed them to increase their channel offering. III gave them an ironclad backup of their core programming, but is being underutilized (IMHO) with this local channel thing.
As far as IV goes, the biggest value is as a deployed space asset. It represents potential. I'm not the biggest fan of local channels as the killer ap for these birds. And I'm not sure that it has any (positive) impact on the bottom line right now. I think the current local offer (local into local only if you are in a white area adjacent to the specific local market) is too limited to be successful.
Nonetheless, don't underestimate (the way WSJ did) the effectiveness of Charlie's lobbying effort in congress. I'm sure he'll get more mileage out of the recent Primestar acquisition of Netlink/Superstar's C band subscribers. It doesn't take much of an imagination to understand that the cable-backed Primestar, Inc. (whatever they say about the rollup creating a separate company, they are still tainted with cable) will be converting satellite viewers (read subscribers to a cable competitor) to its cable-style Primestar service. The cries will get louder if they use (as I'm sure they will) the combination carrot/stick of higher C band programming prices and free Primestar equipment.
In short, I don't see think launch is as vital as the others, although is certainly is a milestone for the company and the stock. I think the locals are not as important as DISH makes them seem, but Charlie knows his business better than I do. And, since the launch is getting close, I want to go on record wishing them success.
GO DISH!
NOEL |
