As was mentioned before on this thread, the critical question is the
capital base of Japanese banks. With the new fiscal year, they can
hide their weak positions again, although their weakness is well known to all. Nikkei has made a triple bottom around 14500 during the last 6? years. I will fetch the chart!. Since the Japanese government is pumping money into the market, the support may hold for awhile, but
the rumors from FED, Europe's fast run-ups, are both likely to aggravate the situation in Japan, which is already struggling. The
proposed fiscal package is being rejected by the market, since it
did not include PERMANENT tax cuts. The Japanese are in a real fix, with a large and aging population, without natural resources,
corruption, and ineffective government. I would not venture to guess how long it will take them to start growing again.
It seems to me that this is downward spiral for awhile for all the
markets around the world.
Seppo
web.kyoto-inet.or.jp
P. S. Click on M for monthly and you get Nikkei from 1988-1998. |
