I just don't understand some of the people on this thread. They make out as if Intel has to fail badly in order for AMD to succeed, or vice versa. As long as AMD can make the K6 efficiently, and sell all the chips they can make, they will do well. Whether they have captured 28.1% or 30.4% of market share is moot.
Intel investors expect perfect execution and 30%+ annual growth rate, and it just isn't going to happen for the next few years. Unfortunately, the stock is still priced with this in mind, judging by historical P/E ratios etc. This can only lead to disappointment, as the truth finally sinks in. Intel doen't have to go bankrupt in order for the stock to sink; their earnings would just have to stagnate for a few quaters and people lose patience. AMD, on the other hand (at least at 18 when I bought the stock) has significant upside potential since they now have a very competitive product, the market is shifting towards low cost PCs, and they have the endorsement of Compaq, IBM, Digital, Acer and soon HP.
I have nothing against Intel; I held INTC for several years (since the Pentium bug debacle) and only recently sold when the stock became ridiculously overvalued. It has since declined but in my opinion, is still overvalued given the current market conditions. I use a Pentium Pro at work, a Pentium for myself at home, and two K6s (one as a home server). I just don't feel there is enough reason to go for a Pentium II though at this moment in time.
Adrian |
