lml, what you are missing is that I made a mistake, and the EL drivers by themselves will not be likely to provide $40 MM sales to IMPX within two years. However, I think that the EL drivers could supply some of the "product gap" required for IMPX to have visibility of $20/quarter sales (a gap of $10 MM/Q). Right now many LCD displays are back illuminated with either an LED or even with a small incandescent light and in both cases, the back lighting is puny. I think that there are at least 100 MM telephone that could use EL, but have no idea if they will, a similar number of wireless phones, displays on portable entertainment systems (boom boxes etc), hand held communicators and "organizers" and many other devices that use backlit LCD. I think one can make a case for a "potential market of maybe 500 MM units per year. But, I doubt that more than 10% of that (50 MM units) will convert to EL in the near future, and thus, if IMPX captures 20% of that new market (10 MM units per year) you end up with possibly 10% of what we need to fill the gap. I presume, however, that they will find additional applications (not EL drivers), and since I believe there productive capacity to be pretty close to $80 MM year, or possibly higher, they have at least a potential for filling the gap. What will they fill with, I do not know, and in the next few months, I will reassess their potential according to new products and design ins they announce. For the time being, I have to lower my forecast of some $9/share in two years to about $6 or so (that will assume visibility of $60 MM per year in two years and a PSR of 3).
Zeev |
