Bear! Message Board - Msg: 4232210

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear!

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To: Alex Greenland who wrote (13)	4/27/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: Steve Joyce	Read Replies (1) of 271

Alex, No need to ever apologize for formulas......i personally love them. I couldn't agree with you more....the rate of inflows must keep pace with the rise in the market and vise versa for the inflow theory to be correct. i haven't really thought about it too much but I'm sure if you were to construct a regression model using mutual fund inflows as the predictor and lagged by some time period I would love to see the results. As for the mentality of the investing public.....I can only speak from what I see. I see a lot of uniformed investors being guided by unsophisticated advisors. I am not knocking brokers by any means.....I was one for a brief time. Most people seem comfortable with the "defer it now, invest for the long haul.....why try to time the markets" idea that most common salary deferral plans are based on. People will be hard pressed to find a mutual fund company (or manager) that has retirement plan money under management that has not been taking action against market timers that move often in their retirement plans. I am not saying in any way that this is company specific, it is actual an industry issue that has been coming to a head lately. People that are uninformed and buy the big picture theories tend to follow the rules. Just some thoughts.....for discussion......not always thoughts that I back 100%.... SJJ

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