Da Bears! Mike, your timing is unbelievable. You start a bear thread just before everybody gets scared.
I was smiling all day today (when I was alone) because I blew out over half my personal portfolio in the last month or so. My wife was calling me an idiot last week, but was very happy today.
I am an institutional investor, so I talk to Wall Street analysts/strategists all the time, and I can't count how many time I have heard this: "A bear? Come on, everybody knows you don't get a bear market when interest rates are falling! What are you, stupid?" Well, today we heard the sound of that argument crashing to the ground.
Oops, used the word "crashing". Didn't mean it. I kind of expect a slow, agonizing bear that will make everybody wish for a nice clean crash. A crash of 30% in one day wouldn't bother me much, but it wouldn't kill this "buy on dips" - any dips - idea that is so conventionally wise today. What will kill that notion is a nice slow burn, where the first 10% dip becomes a 15% dip, then a 20% dip. I figure once we break 20% off the top, the "buy on dips" geniuses will be terrified enough to buy from (of course a further 20% "dip"). You've got to be a little sadistic to be a bear today. (Maybe masochistic as well).
Or maybe it just bounces back tomorrow as the "dips" buy and I go back to looking stupid. |
