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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear!
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To: Michael Burry who wrote (21)4/28/1998 12:30:00 AM
From: Bonnie Bear   of 271
 
Mike: if you're willing to take some risk, the opportunity of a lifetime might be red-chip Chinese companies. Look at China Southern Airlines or Shanghai Petrochem and figure out what they're worth if they were Dow Stocks. It's scary. Pension plans for individuals in China and India must buy a Chinese or Indian index fund. Since this represents 50% of the world's population it's a good guess where the money flow is going in the next 20 years.
Probably better to buy individual ADRs than CEFs. Schwab has a fund they call an international index fund, but they really just pick up on the trend du jour. IMHO it may be a good place to park a bit of money on a big dip, let their computers find the trend du jour.
I think Chile and South Africa have low correlation to US.
Government is missing something: Zachs show tech stocks like Cisco increasing at a 30% growth rate for the next five years. Do we have a perpetual motion machine where all of yuppie's after-tax income goes back to feed the stock market? Who's going to pay for it? Something bad seems inevitable: we will have a currency collapse of the US dollar when too many dollars floods the planet, we will have double-digit unemployment as companies dump droves of workers to pay for IS upgrades, we will have profits vanish to pay for IS upgrades, or we have the rise of trillion-dollar-market-cap global oligopolies that replace the various global governments and report to no one. The last is most frightening, and is increasingly cited among my co-workers as a reason to keep dumping money into stocks since they believe the government is powerless to control it and they are terrified to be left behind.
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