Jeff:
I am continually amazed by those of you equity holders who merely dismiss negative 2 billion and counting. The negative net worth is against you, not the bondholders, not the sellers of Lucent and Nortel switches. You. The Equity Holders. I'd say that's enough to bury a lot of people. It's not just a feeling.
As for the business plan. Sure, if it works, some people at Winstar will make a lot of money. The debt holders, with their 12% return. Certainly your beloved management, who has graciously granted themselves a series of in the money options at your expense.
And possibly, just possibly, even you stockholders. But given the risk reward ratio, I don't see it as favorable.
As for assessing the business plan's merits, I think you are all missing the point of exactly how difficult it is to forecast telecommunications demand, especially 10 years out. Bill Gates completely missed the internet, but then had the financial power to point his company at that market.
Who knows what technological advancements will come from fiber, cable modem, satellite, or even other wireless licenses. It's not like Winstar holds a monopoly on access, despite what you think.
Add up all these factors, and I'd say your precious equity has troubles ahead.
JC
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